You may have noticed that I’ve not updated the Obama vs. Romney category very often recently. The reason behind my thinking on that is that because we’re so close to the election, the race is tightening, and the polls tend to vary widely. Gallup polling, for instance, has proven to be a real outlier over the past few weeks, and has caused Obama supporters to become very despondent, unnecessarily so.
So, earlier in the week, polls showed Romney edging ahead by a slight amount. Today, the candidates are polling as even. But, that isn’t the whole story, and the polls aren’t the be all and end all when it comes to accuracy.
I watch Nate Silver’s predictions, along with Intrade. Silver changes his prediction daily, and at no point has he shown Romney either in the lead, or even that close. Same with Intrade.
Today, Silver has the president winning with 290.8 electoral votes and Romney losing with 247.2 electoral votes. Silver says President Obama has a 71% chance to win this election, while Mitt Romney has a 29% chance of winning the election.
Another factor to look at, but not to take as seriously, are the tracking polls which survey the early voters, and they put President Obama ahead by a hefty margin:
The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama had a lead of 53% to 42% among the 17% of the surveyed registered voters who said they had already cast their vote.
In the crucial swing state of Ohio, a new Time poll finds Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney among those who have voted early, 60% to 30%.
In any case, it it a very, very tight election. Under no circumstances should Democrats consider it to be “in the bag”. Vote, and do whatever you can to make sure others are also able to vote. This may be the most important election in your lifetime.
